Should I invest in bonds when interest rates are falling?
Key Takeaways. Most bonds pay a fixed interest rate that becomes more attractive if interest rates fall, driving up demand and the price of the bond. Conversely, if interest rates rise, investors will no longer prefer the lower fixed interest rate paid by a bond, resulting in a decline in its price.
Bond prices move in inverse fashion to interest rates, reflecting an important bond investing consideration known as interest rate risk. If bond yields decline, the value of bonds already on the market move higher. If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value.
Bond prices have an inverse relationship with interest rates. This means that when interest rates go up, bond prices go down and when interest rates go down, bond prices go up.
Waiting for the Fed to cut rates before considering longer term bonds isn't our preferred approach. The bond market is forward-looking and long-term Treasury yields typically decline once investors believe that rate cuts are coming.
- US stocks. Falling rates have historically been a positive for the stock market broadly—a relationship that's held true, on average, regardless of whether the economy is in a recession or not. ...
- Small caps. ...
- Cyclical stock sectors. ...
- Investment-grade corporate bonds. ...
- US Treasurys.
Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.
Investing in bonds when interest rates have peaked can yield higher returns. However, rising interest rates reward bond investors who reinvest their principal over time. It's hard to time the bond market. If your goal for investing in bonds is to reduce portfolio risk and volatility, it's best not to wait.
They may become less attractive to investors than other asset classes in low-interest-rate environments. Bonds typically have lower yields, but the returns are more consistent and reliable over a number of years than stocks, making them appealing to some investors.
The firm's outlook for non-U.S. large caps remained in line with last year's forecast: 7.6%. In line with the outlook from other investment providers, the firm is forecasting a 5.7% gain in 2024 for U.S. investment-grade bonds, versus 4.9% last year and 2.3% in 2022.
If you're holding the bond to maturity, the fluctuations won't matter—your interest payments and face value won't change. But if you buy and sell bonds, you'll need to keep in mind that the price you'll pay or receive is no longer the face value of the bond.
Should you sell bonds when interest rates rise?
Unless you are set on holding your bonds until maturity despite the upcoming availability of more lucrative options, a looming interest rate hike should be a clear sell signal.
Some Bonds Can Be Called Early
It's a risk because you'll no longer have a reliable income stream from the bond. Often, this happens when interest rates fall. Although lower rates might increase your bond's value, the issuer isn't buying the bond from you—it's simply paying off the debt early.
- Vanguard Total World Bond ETF (BNDW)
- Vanguard Core-Plus Bond ETF (VPLS)
- DoubleLine Commercial Real Estate ETF (DCRE)
- Global X 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (CLIP)
- SPDR Portfolio Corporate Bond ETF (SPBO)
- JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF (JPST)
- iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF)
- iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH)
Cyclical stock sectors
As interest rates plummet, earnings tend to rise, presenting a favorable environment for cyclical sectors. Notably, consumer discretionary, technology, real estate, and financial sectors have historically outperformed the market during rate declines and earnings upswings.
Corporate bonds have outperformed government bonds, on average, in the more economically-rosy scenario. The range of historical returns is wide for stocks and bonds, but both have tended to do well when the Fed has started cutting rates.
The winners. Unsurprisingly, bond buyers, lenders, and savers all benefit from higher rates in the early days. Bond yields, in particular, typically move higher even before the Fed raises rates, and bond investors can earn more without taking on additional default risk since the economy is still going strong.
All else being equal, a bond with a longer maturity usually will pay a higher interest rate than a shorter-term bond. For example, 30-year Treasury bonds often pay a full percentage point or two more interest than five-year Treasury notes.
- Pimco Active Bond Exchange-Traded Fund (BOND) ...
- Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index Fund ETF (VGIT) ...
- Pimco Enhanced Short Maturity Active ESG ETF (EMNT) ...
- ProShares Investment Grade-Interest Rate Hedged ETF (IGHG) ...
- iShares National Muni Bond ETF (MUB) ...
- iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF (STIP)
During a bear market environment, bonds are typically viewed as safe investments. That's because when stock prices fall, bond prices tend to rise. When a bear market goes hand in hand with a recession, it's typical to see bond prices increasing and yields falling just before the recession reaches its deepest point.
After weighing your timeline, tolerance to risk and goals, you'll likely know whether CDs or bonds are right for you. CDs are usually best for investors looking for a safe, shorter-term investment. Bonds are typically longer, higher-risk investments that deliver greater returns and a predictable income.
What are the disadvantages of bonds?
- Historically, bonds have provided lower long-term returns than stocks.
- Bond prices fall when interest rates go up. Long-term bonds, especially, suffer from price fluctuations as interest rates rise and fall.
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 30-Year Value (Purchased May 1990) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $207.36 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $414.72 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $1,036.80 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $2,073.60 |
As for fixed income, we expect a strong bounce-back year to play out over the course of 2024. When bond yields are high, the income earned is often enough to offset most price fluctuations. In fact, for the 10-year Treasury to deliver a negative return in 2024, the yield would have to rise to 5.3 percent.
We expect bond yields to decline in line with falling inflation and slower economic growth, but uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's policy moves will likely be a source of volatility. Nonetheless, we are optimistic that fixed income will deliver positive returns in 2024.
There are two ways to make money on bonds: through interest payments and selling a bond for more than you paid. With most bonds, you'll get regular interest payments while you hold the bond. Most bonds have a fixed interest rate. Or, a fee you get to lend it.…
