Do stock prices go up when interest rates go down?
As a general rule of thumb, when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, it causes the stock market to go up; when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it causes the stock market to go down.
Yet interest rates are still a consideration for equity investors. Stock prices tended to track with bond yield trends over the course of 2023. When interest rates rose, stock prices retreated, and when rates fell, stocks reacted favorably.
Certain economic sectors can benefit from falling interest rates. Depending on the circ*mstances, the consumer discretionary, information technology, utilities, real estate, consumer staples and/or materials sectors may see a boost as rates drop.
Coming off the market's lows in October 2023, investors were confident that interest rates had peaked and the Federal Reserve was about to cut them as many as seven times by January 2025. However, when recent data showed hotter-than-expected economic growth and a pickup in inflation, investors remained bullish.
The S&P 500 generated an impressive 26.29% total return in 2023, rebounding from an 18.11% setback in 2022. Heading into 2024, investors are optimistic the same macroeconomic tailwinds that fueled the stock market's 2023 rally will propel the S&P 500 to new all-time highs in 2024.
Bonds tend to perform well during interest rate cuts due to an inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates. As interest rates decrease, existing bonds with fixed interest rates become more attractive to investors, increasing prices.
Financials First. The financial sector has historically been among the most sensitive to changes in interest rates. With profit margins that actually expand as rates climb, entities like banks, insurance companies, brokerage firms, and money managers generally benefit from higher interest rates.
Financial institutions, highly leveraged businesses, and companies that pay high dividends are all examples of interest sensitive stocks.
'The rationale behind this lies in the belief that lower interest rates amplify present valuations of growth companies, whose long-term growth prospects become more attractive due to discounted future cash flows. '
It can be nerve-wracking to watch your portfolio consistently drop during bear market periods. After all, nobody likes losing money; that goes against the whole purpose of investing. However, pulling your money out of the stock market during down periods can often do more harm than good in the long term.
At what age should you get out of the stock market?
There are no set ages to get into or to get out of the stock market. While older clients may want to reduce their investing risk as they age, this doesn't necessarily mean they should be totally out of the stock market.
That said, we do know a few things about the forces that move a stock up or down. These forces fall into three categories: fundamental factors, technical factors, and market sentiment.
Higher interest rates tend to negatively affect earnings and stock prices (often with the exception of the financial sector). Changes in the interest rate tend to impact the stock market quickly but often have a lagged effect on other key economic sectors such as mortgages and auto loans.
His 2024 year-end target for the S&P 500 ranges from 4,600 to 4,800. With the S&P 500 ending 2023 around the 4,700 level, that doesn't leave a tremendous amount of upside for equities. Other investment firms are more optimistic, though.
Wall Street analysts ultimately expect S&P 500 companies to grow earnings by roughly 11% in 2024. And by the fourth quarter, growth is expected to have roughly evened out, with the top 10 stocks expected to see growth of 17.2% while the other 490 companies see growth of 17.8%, according to FactSet data.
Several asset classes perform well in inflationary environments. Tangible assets, like real estate and commodities, have historically been seen as inflation hedges. Some specialized securities can maintain a portfolio's buying power, including certain sector stocks, inflation-indexed bonds, and securitized debt.
One example are bank stocks. Banks make money from the interest they charge on loans. As interest rates rise, banks can often charge a higher interest rate on loans and credit cards compared with the rates they have to pay savings and other interest bearing accounts.
Bank stocks increase in value during periods of inflation, which makes them appealing to investors. Higher net interest margins: Banks earn money from the difference between the interest rates they charge on loans and the interest rates they pay on deposits.
"The markets are dealing with a couple things - inflation is hotter than most expect, rate cut expectations are coming down and we've had a ramp higher in geopolitical tensions, particularly out of the Middle East," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan.
A rise in interest rates automatically boosts a bank's earnings. It increases the amount of money that the bank earns by lending out its cash on hand at short-term interest rates.
Will value stocks come back?
Value stocks could be primed for a comeback, as investors look to broaden their portfolios beyond the Magnificent 7 group of megacap technology stocks—and recent economic data adds to the view that interest rates could stay higher for longer.
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
For example, value stocks tend to outperform during bear markets and economic recessions, while growth stocks tend to excel during bull markets or periods of economic expansion. This factor should, therefore, be taken into account by shorter-term investors or those seeking to time the markets.
Your investment is put into various asset options, including stocks. The value of those stocks is directly tied to the stock market's performance. This means that when the stock market is up, so is your investment, and vice versa. The odds are the value of your retirement savings may decline if the market crashes.
Sometimes, however, the economy turns or an asset bubble pops—in which case, markets crash. Investors who experience a crash can lose money if they sell their positions, instead of waiting it out for a rise. Those who have purchased stock on margin may be forced to liquidate at a loss due to margin calls.
